Taiwan Security Research

Taiwan’s New Premier Named
(CNA, Jan. 27, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou has decided to appoint incumbent Deputy Premier Sean Chen as Taiwan's new premier,

Academics Expect Cross-Strait Relations to Deepen
(CNA, Jan. 27, 2012) If Xi Jinping takes over leadership of the CCP later this year, as expected, he is likely to be too busy with other issues to push a change of policy on Taiwan.

Free Trade Area to be Set Up in South Taiwan
(AFP, Jan. 26, 2012) Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou said a free trade area would be set up soon in the south, as the government begins moves to joining a trans-Pacific free trade alliance.

Deadly Confrontation Spreads in Tibetan Region of China
(New York Times, Jan. 25, 2012) Deadly showdowns between Chinese security forces and Tibetans in a restive region of western China spread to a second town on Tuesday, outside advocacy groups reported.

China Leader-in-Waiting Xi to Visit White House Next Month
(Reuters, Jan. 24, 2012) President Obama will host China’s likely next leader, Vice President Xi Jinping, at the White House on February 14, in a visit set to boost Xi’s credentials as the man who will steer Beijing’s close but quarrelsome ties with Washington.

DPP Prepares for Crucial Election Review
(China Post, Jan. 24, 2012) The DPP is preparing for a crucial meeting for a sweeping review of their defeat in the presidential election after the Lunar New Year's holiday.

US to Keep All 11 Aircraft Carriers As Show of Power
(AP, Jan. 23, 2012) US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta told sailors aboard the country’s oldest aircraft carrier that the US was committed to maintaining a fleet of 11 of the formidable warships despite budget pressures, in part to project sea power against Iran.

At Least 3 Mainland Cities to be Added to Individual Travel List
(China Post, Jan. 22, 2012) Chinese people from at least three more cities in China are likely to be allowed to visit Taiwan as individuals tourists starting early March, according to Executive Yuan officials.

US Must Be Objective, Xi Says
(China Daily, Jan. 20, 2012) The United States should view China's strategic intentions in an objective way and ensure that disputes between the two countries do not harm ties, Vice-President Xi Jinping said on Monday, ahead of a key visit to the US.

Taiwan Moves 1 Step Closer to US Visa Waiver
(China Post, Jan. 21, 2012) U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has formally requested that the Secretary of Homeland Security consider Taiwan for the Visa Waiver Program, according to a White House press release.

After Election, US Presses Taiwan on Beef
(AFP, Jan. 20, 2012) The United States urged Taiwan to ease restrictions on US beef, saying it wanted to focus more on economic relations with the island after President Ma Ying-jeou won re-election.

DPP Fails to Reflect on Loss: Annett Lu
(CNA, Jan. 20, 2012) Former Vice President Annette Lu criticized the DPP for failing to thoroughly review its losses in the just concluded presidential and legislative elections.

National Defense Consists of More Than Military: Ma
(CNA, Jan. 19, 2012) President Ma said matters such as improvements in relations between Taiwan and China, trade and investment, and cultural and educational exchanges can all be seen as “implicit tactics in national defense.”

DPP Should Update Cross-Strait Policy: Hsu
(China Post, Jan. 19, 2012) Former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairman Hsu Hsin-liang urged the party to build Tsai Ing-wen's cross-strait policy into its official platform.

US, Filipino Forces Plan Combat Drills at Oil Rigs near South China Sea Waters Beijing Claims (AP, Jan. 19, 2012) U.S. and Philippine marines plan to hold combat drills at an oil rig in the South China Sea to bolster the defense of such sensitive facilities in a bold move that may provoke protests from China, which claims waters in or near the location.

Beijing Takes on U.S. Envoy Over Rights
(Wall Street Journal, Jan. 18, 2012) China sharply criticized comments by the U.S. ambassador to Beijing that China's human-rights record is deteriorating, adding to tensions between the two nations ahead of a sensitive visit by China's likely next president.

Officials Protest Japan’s Naming of Islands
(China Post, Jan. 18, 2012) The government has lodged a strong protest with Japan over its recent attempt to name several uninhabited islands in disputed seas claimed by the Taiwan government, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

Japan to Name Uninhabited Islets in Disputed Area
(Taipei Times, Jan. 17, 2012) Japan has decided to name several uninhabited islands in a group also claimed by Taiwan and China, a move likely to anger its neighbors.

Fastest-Aging Society Greets Ma’s Second Term in Taiwan
(Bloomberg, Jan. 16, 2012) Ma Ying-jeou’ssecond term as president of Taiwan may be one of the island’s last opportunities to address the consequences of something unmentioned on the campaign trail: the world’s fastest-aging society.

Several Foreign Nations Welcome Local Election Results As Indicator of Firmly Rooted Democracy (China Post, Jan. 16, 2012) The U.S. State Department and Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs congratulated President Ma Ying-jeou on his victory in the presidential election, a victory the two countries hoped will continue to contribute to cross-Taiwan Strait and regional stability.

Taiwan’s Presidential and Legislative Elections: Implications for Taiwan, the United States, and Cross-strait Relations By Richard C. Bush (Luncheon address, CSIS-Brookings Symposium, Jan. 17, 2012) It is unlikely that President Ma will accelerate the process of reconciliation with China, moving towards negotiations on political and security issues. The smartest thing for Beijing and Taipei to do in Ma’s second term may be to consolidate the gains of the first one. How to Size Up Taiwan’s 2012 Election—Dr. Yun-han Chu’s presentation in this CSIS-Brookings Symposium

FDI Focus Continues to Shift By Ding Qingfen
(China Daily, Jan. 27, 2012) Chinese officials believe that the structure of China's FDI is changing with a move away from low-end manufacturing toward those sectors that could help China transform its economic growth model, including services, high-tech, new-energy and high-end manufacturing.

Philippines May Allow Greater U.S. Military Presence in Reaction to China’s Rise By Crag Whitlock (Washington Post, Jan. 26, 2012) Two decades after evicting U.S. forces from their biggest base in the Pacific, the Philippines is in talks with the Obama administration about expanding the American military presence in the island nation, the latest in a series of strategic moves aimed at China.

China’s Hidden Wealth Feeds an Income Gap By Didi Kirsten Tatlow
(New York Times, Jan. 26, 2012) The rich were hiding their wealth, and society was far more unequal than the government was admitting — a politically sensitive subject.

The End of Win-Win World By Gideon Rachman
(Foreign Policy, Jan. 24, 2012) The rise of zero-sum logic is the common thread, tying together seemingly disparate strands in international politics: the crisis inside the European Union, deteriorating U.S.-Chinese relations, and the deadlock in global governance.

China Says Tibetan Monks Rioted, Provoking Deadly Confrontation By Keith Bradsher (New York Times, Jan. 24, 2012) The official version and the version put forward by overseas Tibetan groups both seemed to suggest that the confrontation may have been the most violent since a series of large-scale protests rocked Tibetan-populated regions in early 2008.

Year of the Water Dragon: 12 Chinese Maritime Developments to Look for in 2012 By Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins (China Real Time Report, Jan. 23, 2012) Beginning with the major potential newsmakers, here are 12 key maritime developments to watch for and what they mean.

Taiwan Offers Baby Bonus to Fix Plummeting Birth Rate By Tania Branigan (Guardian, Jan. 23, 2012) The island's plummeting birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, experts say, prompting a warning from the president himself, Ma Ying-jeou, that it is "a serious national security threat".

Tycoon Prods Taiwan Closer to China By Andrew Higgins
(Washington Post, Jan. 21, 2012) Many Taiwanese tycoons now look to China for most of their profits, and the island’s wealthy cheered the election victory last Saturday of President Ma Ying-jeou against a rival who favors keeping Beijing at arm’s length.

China, Vietnam Drift in South China Sea By David Brown
(Asia Times, Jan. 21, 2012) If ASEAN's diplomacy is feckless and the US and regional allies are being drawn into the region's quarrels, where then is the ray of hope? It comes from recent indications that Vietnam and China may be working out a bilateral deal, or at least towards a modus vivendi.

Beware of US Game Over Iran By Mei Xinyu
(China Daily, Jan. 20, 2012) China has no reason to follow the US and impose economic sanctions on Iran. Contrary to the US’ understanding, Premier Wen Jiabao’s Middle East visit aims at deepening cooperation, including accelerating the free trade zone negotiations, between China and the region.

Burma Ready to Play Ball with US By Bertil Lintner
(YaleGlobal, Jan. 20, 2012) Normalized relations with the US could allow Burma to secure access to international financial institutions. By shifting the regional balance and diversifying Burma’s options, the US could disrupt China’s plans to dominate the region.

Congress and Obama’s China Policy, More Bark than Bite By Robert Sutter (PacNet #5, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Jan. 19, 2012) Conflicting interests in the US advocating or opposing tougher congressional action on China indicate that the overall effect of recent congressional activism will not upset the president’s policies. It will prompt some vocal debate and will impede forward movement in US-China relations.

What Next for Taiwan’s Opposition? By Jenny W. Hsu
(China Real Time Report, Jan. 20, 2012) Shelley Rigger said that while Ms. Tsai should be lauded for restoring burnishing the DPP’s image, she might have overlooked a key constituency – the “green” pro-independence die-hards—who might constrain the DPP from moving to the center.

It’s All Right, Ma
(The Economist, Jan. 21, 2012) Perhaps most striking this time round was the reaction the presidential and parliamentary polls aroused in China. There, some saw President Ma Ying-jeou’s re-election in a peacefully contested race as evidence that democracy might one day have a chance in China too.

Why the Chinese Save By Sheldon Garon
(Foreign Policy, Jan. 19, 2012) Contrary to conventional wisdom, China’s high savings rate has everything to do with policy and institutions. Culture, not so much.

How China Ends West’s Domination By Zhang Yunling
(The Diplomat, Jan. 16, 2012) Some have worried that China may “operate both within and outside the existing international system, seeking to transform that system while at the same time, in effect, sponsoring a new China-centric international system." The fact is, though, that a China-centric system would neither be acceptable to other nations nor in China’s own interest.

US Expert Sees Cautious Cross-Strait Policy By William Lowther
(Taipei Times, Jan. 19, 2012) Former AIT chairman Richard Bush said that negotiations over cross-strait political and security issues are not high on Ma Ying-jeou’s agenda.

Battle for Control of Asia’s Seas Goes Underwater By Eric Talmadge
(AP, Jan. 19, 2012) Nearly every Asian country with a coastline is fortifying its submarine fleet amid territorial disputes stirred up by an increasingly assertive China and the promise of bountiful natural resources.

Global Implications of China’s Challenges—Part II By Borje Ljunggren (YaleGlobal, Jan. 18, 2012) The Wukan incident and the ad hoc manner in which ‘mass incidents’ are handled raise fundamental questions about accountability and governance.

Why China Is Weak on Soft Power By Joseph S. Nye Jr.
(New York Times, Jan. 18, 2012) What China seems not to appreciate is that using culture and narrative to create soft power is not easy when they are inconsistent with domestic realities.

China Turns Predominantly Urban By Jeremy Page and Bob Davis
(Wall Street Journal, Jan. 18, 2012) China has announced that people living in its towns and cities now outnumber those in the countryside, making it a predominantly urban nation for the first time in Chinese civilization. However, transfer of millions to cities is double-edged sword.

US Navy Commander Concerned South China Sea Incident Could Easily Escalate (AP, Jan. 18, 2012) The U.S. Navy’s top commander in the Pacific says he’s concerned local arguments in disputed oil rich waters near the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea could escalate into larger, more serious confrontations.

Taiwan’s Economic Tunnel Vision By Philip Bowring
(Wall Street Journal, Jan. 17, 2012) Failure to achieve the aspiration of being a regional trade and services hub was long blamed on the absence of cross-Strait links, particularly after China emerged as a major player. But the creation of those links by the Ma government has exposed the fact that other forces are thwarting Taiwan's growth.

Breathing Easier on Taiwan By Dennis V. Hickey
(LA Times, Jan. 17, 2012) Ma Ying-jeou’s reelection lowers the chances for new tensions with mainland China. But that doesn’t mean U.S. support for Taiwan in unnecessary.

China’s New Strategic Target: Arctic Minerals By Andrew Erickson and Gabe Collins (China Real Time Report, Jan. 18, 2012) As policymakers in Washington focus on China’s expanding presence in Africa and growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean region, Danish diplomatic assistance is opening the gate for China to establish a strategic foothold in the Arctic.

Taiwan Election Stirs Hopes among Chinese for Democracy By Andrew Jacobs (New York Times, Jan. 17, 2012) There was another winner in the election this weekend that handed President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan a second term in office — the faint but unmistakable clamor for democracy in China.

Protester Is Made a Boss by the Party He Defied By Michael Wines
(New York Times, Jan. 17, 2012) In an unlikely coda to the citizen takeover last month of Wukan, the local Communist Party has selected the protest leader to be the village’s new party secretary.

Introducing: China Real Time’s China Econtracker By Tom Orlik
(China Real Time Report, Jan. 17, 2012) To save readers the trouble of getting lost for hours in the maze of Beijing’s Internet, China Real Time is today launching the China Econtracker, an interactive tool for tracking China’s economy.

Global Implications of China’s Challenges—Part I By Thomas Fingar
(YaleGlobal, Jan. 16, 2012) Integration with the global economy, an accomplishment for China since 1978, has the potential for triggering domestic disruptions, and China may be uniquely vulnerable to developments beyond its borders and beyond its control.

Taiwan Vote Shows Doubt about China By Paul Mozur and Jenny W. Hsu (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 16, 2012) Ma Ying-jeou's victory in Taiwan's presidential elections gave him a renewed mandate to press ahead with economic opening to China, but analysts said the vote underlined deep suspicions among voters toward their giant neighbor.

Eight Questions: Nick Lardy, ‘Sustaining China’s Economic Growth’ By Tom Orlik (China Real Time Report, Jan. 16, 2012) Mr. Lardy’s new book, “Sustaining China’s Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis,” takes a detailed look at the causes and remedies of the imbalances in the world’s second largest economy.

Why Ma Won the Elections and What’s Next for Taiwan and China By Daniel Lynch (Foreign Affairs, Jan. 15, 2012) Ma's victory almost certainly raised Beijing's expectations. China's leaders may pressure Ma to begin formally discussing Taiwan's political future. So, rather than stabilizing the cross-strait status quo, Ma's election might usher in a new period of instability in which Chinese demands on Taiwan intensify.

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